NFL Mock Draft

Alright so I spent way too much time doing this, but I did a mock draft. Some write ups are better than others, and I'm sure you'll agree that they get gradually worse after about 15. I said I did a mock draft, I didn't say it was a good one. Additionally, the order is going to be how I think the draft will actually go, not who I think are the best players, because if it went that way, the top 4 picks would be some combination of Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, Bradley Chubb, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Ok here we go. (Edit: this was about half done this morning, and I wasn't going to go back and change it when I heard the Browns were taking Mayfield number 1 because this was exhausting to do. So just pretend that I finished it yesterday.)

1. Cleveland Browns- Sam Darnold, QB

-Obviously the Browns need a QB, and I think they will go with Darnold here. I think it comes down to either Darnold or Josh Allen, and even with GM John Dorsey's recent comments about hand size, I don't think they will pull the trigger on Allen, unless they are 100% positive that he is the best QB in the class. Darnold comes with all the hype and seemingly unlimited talent, and many NFL scouts believe he is the most complete package of the QB's in the draft. Personally, I think he has one of the biggest bust potentials in the draft, based a lot on his decision making while at USC and the belief that anyone who goes to Cleveland is immediately fighting an uphill battle, but if he turns out, he will turn out in a big way. I still think he goes 1 overall, if for no other reason that if you're the Browns, you've messed up so many picks and moves in the past that you don't really want to take a huge chance on someone like Allen or Mayfield, because if Darnold fails, at least you'll be in good company with everyone else who thought he was going to be good.

2. New York Giants- Saquon Barkley, RB

-Probably the most electric player in the draft, Barkley has drawn comps to Barry Sanders and has been called as much of a lock, if not more, than recent young RB's Zeke Elliot, Todd Gurley, and Leonard Fournette. There's almost no way that Barkley makes it out of the top 5, and it's just a matter of which of the 5 teams thinks they can forgo choosing a QB. While I don't personally think the Giants should skip on a QB here, the signs seem to be pointing to the team sticking with Eli Manning for this year, and possibly giving Davis Webb a chance to show if he has what it takes. If the Giants end up keeping Odell Beckham Jr., Barkley would be a great compliment for the offense, but both guys will be diminished if they don't have a competent QB, which Eli is becoming less and less of every year. Regardless, Barkley still feels like the pick here, but if the Giants do go QB here, don't expect him to make it past the Browns second pick at number 4.

3. New York Jets- Josh Allen, QB

- In my opinion, albeit a biased one, I think that Allen is the best QB in the draft. He has all the tools, including one of the biggest arms we've seen in a long time. Allen poses issues to scouts and front offices because, while he appears to have the tools, he did face far less competition than the other top QB's in this draft have faced. Allen has had comps all over the map, from Carson Wentz, another small school prospect who was coached by Craig Bohl, who was also Allen's coach at Wyoming, to Jamarcus Russell, the number 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft, who also had an absolute cannon for an arm. Criticisms for Allen are not unwarranted, including his completion percentage in the mid to upper 50s, and former NFL QB Dan Orlovsky's analysis that Allen struggled to recognize blitzes pre snap, but these seem to be fixable issues to me. Allen had little to no help at Wyoming this year, with a young offensive line and a wide receiver corp that was plagued with drops, something that an NFL supporting cast should be able to alleviate a bit. As for the blitz pickup issue, that can be remedied with good coaching and film study. People are very torn on whether Allen is going to be a star or a bust, and there doesn't seem to be an in between, and I think he's going to be good. If I'm the Jets, I'm very excited about him still being here, and if they're choosing between Allen and Rosen, Allen is the way to go.

4. Cleveland Browns- Bradley Chubb, DE

- If all were to go perfect for the Browns, Barkley would still be here in this spot. If he isn't, I think that they have to decide the next best available. While I would probably say that Quenton Nelson would be that guy, 4 might be a little high to take a guard. I think that they end up taking Chubb, a guy who is an absolute monster on the edge. After taking Myles Garrett number 1 overall last year, Chubb would instantly create one of the best pass rushing duo's in the league. Most teams don't have one offensive tackle that they feel comfortable putting against an aggressive pass rusher, let alone 2, and I think being able to put both of these guys on the field at the same time makes the Browns defense one to have a healthy amount of fear in facing.

5. Denver Broncos- Josh Rosen, QB

- Rosen is the 3rd of the big 3 QB's in this draft, but not too long ago, he was considered the number 1 pick. Rosen has faced criticisms, fair or not, for potentially being too cerebral to be a successful NFL QB. He has been called out by his own coach at UCLA for not simply accepting what he has been told, that he needs a reason for everything, and that he can be successful, but needs a team and coaching staff that will challenge him mentally every day. It is tough to know how this will play out in the NFL, but we do know that he is still a damn good quarterback. I think that Rosen is the safest QB in the draft, meaning that I think he has the highest floor of any of the other guys that might get drafted. Rosen also is the guy that is the most NFL ready right now, and doesn't necessarily need to sit and learn how to play QB behind a veteran. It would be interesting to see how the Broncos would handle this situation, as they just signed Case Keenum to a 2 year deal in the off-season to be their starting QB. I think it is their intention to go with Keenum even if they draft a QB, and the presence of Keenum doesn't even make it necessity that they go QB here. John Elway has even recently said that the pick is available for trade. I don't see them trading it away though, unless they are confident in Keenum being the guy for the next 3-5 years, and Chubb and Barkley are already gone, like they are here. In that case, I could see them trading back to the 12-20 spots, and possibly look at Lamar Jackson, or fill other gaps such as offensive line. With all that being said, I think if Rosen, or Allen or Darnold, are here at the 5th pick, the Broncos should take him, giving themselves another shot with a young QB, after having missed on their last two: Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch.

6. Indianapolis Colts- Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB

- The Colts traded down with the Jets to get this pick, meaning that they aren't looking for a quarterback, and believe that Andrew Luck will be, at some point, ready to go. It's also very possible that they trade back again, with teams like Miami and Buffalo looking to get in the market for a QB, and having Baker Mayfield still available. If the Colts decide to hold on to this pick, they are looking for ways to improve their team around Andrew Luck, and there is a lot that needs improved. I think defense should be the main focus, and you won't find a better defensive playmaker in this draft than Fitzpatrick. He will come in and make an immediate impact at the back of this or any defense. Fitzpatrick to me is one of the locks of this draft, and I don't see him dropping any farther than 8, but 6 seems like a logical spot for him.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Derwin James, DB

- Another team looking for help in the defensive backfield, the Bucs will probably be looking at Fitzpatrick, James, or Denzel Ward in this slot. I like Derwin James because he fits a similar athletic playmaker mold to Fitzpatrick. I think that Ward might be the better player and definitely wouldn't begrudge them for taking him here, but I think they have a bigger need at safety than corner, even if they could stand to improve both spots.

8. Chicago Bears- Quenton Nelson, G

- The Bears are hoping to build around their young QB Mitch Trubisky and honestly, they have a lot of the offensive weapons already in place. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard in the backfield, and the addition of Allen Robinson to the young receiver corp, which will hopefully feature Kevin White at some point, give Trubisky and new head coach Matt Nagy plenty of offensive options. The next step for this offense is to keep your young QB off the ground and healthy, and there's no better option in this draft than Nelson. In fact, I think that Nelson is the best prospect who is the most likely to be successful, and the least chance to be a bust, with the exception of Saquon Barkley, maybe. Traditional wisdom would say to not select a guard this early, but there isn't a team in the NFL that would't benefit from having a player like Nelson on their team. Nelson most reminds me of Zack Martin for the Cowboys, in that he just physically dominates on every play that you watch. If I'm the Bears, and Nelson is here at 8, I don't walk, I run the pick into Goodell. Enjoy the future, Chicago.

9. San Francisco 49ers- Denzel Ward, CB

- The 49ers could have a change in priority with the recent legal issues that their middle linebacker Reuben Foster has gotten into, and GM John Lynch has come out and said that if it turns out he is guilty, they will part ways with last years first round pick. If they think that they need to fill that gap, they could end up going with Roquan Smith out of Georgia, who has probably been the fastest rising prospect towards the end of the pre draft process. However, I think that if Ward is still here at 9, and he might not be, San Francisco will snatch him up. He is too good to let go much farther down, and the 49ers need help at the back end of that defense. They recently signed Richard Sherman, who will provide stability on one side of the defense, and will allow Ward a few years of growth before being thrusted into the primary corner position.

10. Oakland Raiders- Roquan Smith, LB

- This pick could get traded, and they might not need a linebacker if they think that Navarro Bowman is going to resign, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. Smith is considered the best linebacker in the class and is incredibly athletic. Despite being undersized, he should be a great addition to any defense, and that should be the Raiders priority in this draft.

11. Miami Dolphins- Baker Mayfield, QB

-If he makes it past the Jets at 3, who really like him, we've gotten to Baker Mayfield territory. The Dolphins and Bills, and later the Cardinals, Ravens, and Chargers could all use a quarterback in some capacity, whether it's an immediate starter or a future plan. There are a number of teams with higher picks that would be willing to trade down if any of those teams that need a QB come calling. I honestly don't think he makes it past 12, and some people don't see him making it past 5, which just comes with the nature of the quarterback driven league. But, I don't like Baker Mayfield. Not because of his antics or supposed off the field issues, I actually love the passion that he plays with, and the confidence that he displays is one of his best attributes. I loved watching him in college, and I would often defend him to others. I also don't think he is going to be the next Johnny Manzeil. That's an unfair comparison based on the size of the player, and one off the field incident. Baker is by far the superior talent. With all that being said, I just don't think he's going to be a good NFL quarterback. There are a number of reasons for that, and the first is the type of offense that he was in. I feel like this is never talked about, and it drives me crazy that its not, but the offense that Oklahoma runs does not translate to success in the NFL. The hybrid spread type offense that they run is meant to make things easier on the quarterbacks with quick, one man reads, often using the much cited RPO. We saw a large increase in the use of RPO's in the NFL this year, but it's still the minority of the pass concepts that Mayfield will have to run. Name a quarterback in the NFL who came from one of these type of offensive systems, and is doing well. Mariota comes to mind, and he's average at best when forced into an NFL offense. Some more that come to mind from recent years that have not been successful: Johnny Manzeil (with above caveat), Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and RGIII. Something you might notice about some of these guys, and many others that I didn't mention, is that they're in the Big 12. As anyone who is not a fan of the Big 12 will tell you, the Big 12 defenses simply aren't that good. How many times have you seen wide receivers running down the field wide open? Every time? Exactly. Similar to the last criticism, try to name the last Big 12 quarterback that has had any success in the NFL. The only one that you can think of is Sam Bradford, who is on his 4th team since being drafted in 2010. In fact, in the last 10 drafts, there have been 129 total quarterbacks drafted and only 13 of those have been from the Big 12. Those players are, from most recent: Patrick Mahomes, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Landry Jones, RGIII, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Josh Freeman, and Stephen McGee. Withholding judgement on Mahomes so far (the reasons I don't like Mayfield are the reasons I don't think Mahomes will be successful), that's a pretty paltry group. Now obviously these failures are in no way indicative of Mayfield's ability, but I don't think that should be discounted either. As a fan of the Broncos, who are drafting at 5 or may trade down and still have a chance at him in this range, I do not want them to take Mayfield, for all the reasons above. But if they do, I will become the biggest Baker fan in the world, because he's just so much damn fun to be a fan of, even if he's got an uphill battle ahead of him. (Edit: This was done before the news came out that the Browns were going to draft Baker first overall. My criticism still stands)

12. Buffalo Bills- Tremaine Edwards, LB

- In this scenario, the Bills are on the outside looking in for a QB. It is very possible that Buffalo trades up and gets into the top 5 even in order to take one of the guys that they like. Buffalo likes both Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen and if either of those guys begin to slip, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a deal. If they do hold steady and are left here, I think they have to take basically the next best player available, and Edwards is just that, while also helping their defense. Edwards is a physical freak at 6'5 and 230 lbs and can run. He has every chance to be better than Roquan Smith, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. Still, the Bills would have to have a bittersweet feeling if they're still at 12 and don't get a quarterback.

13. Washington Redskins- Vita Vea, DT

-The best DT in the draft, and I don't think it's that close between him and Da'Ron Payne, even though Payne will be selected somewhere around this area as well. The fact that Vea is almost 350 lbs and athletic as he is makes him a very attractive pick, especially for someone that is going to run a 3-4 defense. At the top end, he could be a Vince Wilfork and that's a pretty good justification for taking him at 13.

14. Green Bay Packers- Jaire Alexander, CB

- The Packers have a lot of needs in an attempt to surround Aaron Rodgers with a team that can make a serious playoff run. I think that this pick comes down to either Alexander or Will Hernandez, the guard from UTEP. While Hernandez would be a huge step towards keeping Aaron Rodgers off the ground, it's awfully hard to pass up Alexander here. Put him on the other side of Tramon Williams and the Green Bay defense gets a big help, which is something they really need.

15. Arizona Cardinals- Lamar Jackson, QB

-And we've gotten into Lamar Jackson territory. While he may not go here to the Cardinals, I don't see him getting past 17, with the Ravens at 16 and Chargers at 17 and all 3 of them looking for the quarterback of the future. Now Jackson has been a pretty polarizing prospect throughout this process, and you either love him or hate him, similar to Baker Mayfield. Personally, I love him. I think he has such a unique set of skills that can't be taught. While I don't like the Deshaun Watson comparison, Watson was much further along in his development as a passer, I do see the Mike Vick qualities. If you draft him and expect him to play like a pure pocket passer, it's not going to go well. But if you tailor your offensive system to his skills, let him use his feet and incredibly strong arm outside the pocket, he has the potential to be an absolute electric factory in the NFL. Vick showed spurts of that in Atlanta and put it all together in his time with Philadelphia, and Jackson could have more sustained success than that if he is put in the right system. Now for that reason, I would really like to see him end up outside of these next 3 picks, or I would like to see someone else trade up and take him. Specifically, I want him to end up with the Saints or the Patriots. Maybe the Steelers too. In any of these situations, the teams have a Hall of Fame QB starting and there won't be pressure to have Jackson step in and play. It's been well documented lately that the Patriots have taken a liking to him, and I think that the culture there or in Pittsburgh, or the offensive schemes of Sean Payton in New Orleans would be the perfect place for Jackson's unique talent to develop. With all that being said, those teams will almost certainly have to trade up to take him. I like Jackson. But if Arizona, or anyone else takes him, they better have the proper structure around him to make him successful. If they do, you might just get the steal of the draft.

16. Baltimore Ravens- Will Hernandez, G

- This is a tough pick for the Ravens. They need offensive help, but there aren't a lot of offensive weapons available at this point. With Jackson gone, and I think this is too early to take Calvin Ridley, especially considering the 3 wide receiver moves that the Ravens made in the offseason, the Ravens could trade back and it wouldn't surprise me. If they do hang on here, I think this is the best pick on the board for them. Hernandez is a stud, and another guard taken early, and will immediately be an impact player for whoever takes him. Might not be a sexy pick, but a good one.

17. Los Angeles Chargers- Da'Ron Payne, DT

-Similar to how the Ravens, the Chargers are looking for a QB of the future, but if they don't get one, Payne is a solid addition to a defensive front that needs a little boost in the run stopping department. Payne isn't much of a pass rusher, but with Joey Bosa and Melvin Engram, they don't need the pass rush from him.

18. Seattle Seahawks- Marcus Davenport, DE

-The Seahawks had a pretty devastating offseason, losing a lot of the pieces that made their defense such a force over the last few years. Richard Sherman went to the 49ers and Michael Bennett is now with the Eagles, and the Seahawks need to address the defensive end hole more urgently I think. Davenport is the next best end in the draft outside of Chubb and is where I think they go here, but could go either Mike Hughes or Josh Jackson if they want a corner.

19. Dallas Cowboys- Calvin Ridley, WR

-The Cowboys need a receiver with the exit of Dez Bryant, and I think they'll take the best one available at 19. The problem is that this isn't a big draft for playmaking receivers. Ridley is probably the most complete of the bunch, and that's why I think they talk him here. I wouldn't be shocked if they went Courtland Sutton out of SMU, who is a bigger, more physical receiver at 6'3 220 lbs, or even DJ Moore, but I like Ridley as a more plug and play playmaker right away.

20. Detroit Lions- Mike McGlinchey, OT

-This might be a little late for McGlinchey, but I don't see any of the tackles as elite edge protectors. That being said, he's probably the best that this class has to offer, and if he's sitting here still at 20, the Lions would have a great addition and would slide in at right tackle on the opposite side of Taylor Decker. The Lions are making an attempt to improve their running game with the addition of Legarrette Blount, and McGlinchey would help that effort.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Frank Ragnow, C

-The Bengals need O-Line help, specifically a center, so this is a perfect fit.

22. Buffalo Bills- Isaiah Wynn, G

-Theoretically, this is the Bill's second pick of the first round and they won't be able to address the QB issue here either. Instead they need help on the offensive line, especially with Richie Incognito retiring and Wynn can fill that spot for them. He's no Incognito, and not Quenton Nelson or Will Hernandez for that matter, but he should make the transition from tackle to guard fairly well for the Bills.

23. New England Patriots- Kolton Miller, T

-Again theoretically, this is the first of two first round picks for the Patriots. Like I state earlier, I would love to see them package these two and move up to get Lamar Jackson, but New England has a number of holes that they need to fill, and left tackle is one of the biggest. However, they also need to address Tom Brady's replacement. If they can find a way to do both in this draft, it will be an unequivocal success, and if anyone would be able to find a way to do it, it would be the Patriots.

24. Carolina Panthers- Harold Landry, DE/OLB

-The Panthers made a couple moves this offseason to land a few more playmakers for Cam Newton, but did lose Jonathon Stewart, so it's possible they go with a big running back like Derrius Guice here. I like them going defense and if Landry is still available, the Boston College edge rusher would be a good player to take some of the seemingly ageless Julius Peppers snaps and eventually take over that position, or cover for the suspended Thomas Davis early in the season.

25. Tennessee Titans- Rashaan Evans, LB

-The athletic linebacker from Alabama can play both inside and outside and should be fun for new head coach Mike Vrabel, who might know something about playing linebacker, to coach along to potentially anchor that defense.

26. Atlanta Falcons- Taven Bryan, DT

-The Falcons need to fill the hole that they have in the middle of their D-Line and if Bryan is here at 26, he should be a perfect solution for them.

27. New Orleans Saints- Dallas Goedert, TE

-Here is another spot that I think could move up and take Lamar Jackson, but if they stay put, this tight end would be a great addition for Sean Payton and Drew Brees. It's been tight end by committee in New Orleans since the departure of Jimmy Graham, with Coby Fleener, Benjamin Watson, and Josh Hill, among others, trying to pick up the slack. I think Goedert could be a really good playmaker in the Saints offense.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers- Sony Michel, RB

-(Insert above comment about moving up for Lamar Jackson) I love Michel to the Steelers here. It's essentially bidding farewell to Le'veon Bell next year, and I think that's what they should do anyway. All of a sudden they have a back up to Bell should he miss anytime this year, and then don't have to worry about overpaying for a running back who has been run harder than anyone else in the league in the last 5 years. I like Bell, but running backs get chewed up and spit out in this league and Bell is going to hit a wall eventually, most likely sooner than later. Michel is the perfect fit here.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars- Courtland Sutton, WR

-The Jags have a number of receivers that really came along towards the end of the year last year, but a lot of them are undersized, speed receivers. Sutton would offer a big bodied possession receiver that they no longer have with Allen Robinson leaving for the Bears, and would be a good target to help Blake Bortles and this surprising Jacksonville team.

30. Minnesota Vikings- Connor Williams, G

-The Vikings made the big move for Kirk Cousins in the offseason, so they are looking at a 2 or 3 year window to make a Super Bowl run before some of their guys come up for new contracts and they can't afford them. In order to help them in that time, the best thing they can do is protect Cousins and help the run game. They have plenty of offensive weapons and defensive talent, as evident by the Case Keenum playoff run. In order to beat the Eagles, or Rams, who look like the major contenders in the NFC, they need to be able to give their new QB time against those great defensive lines. Williams helps that.

31. New England Patriots- Christian Kirk, WR

-If they stay put, and already took care of the Tackle position, they could go QB here, but I don't like Mason Rudolph or Kyle Lauletta this early. I think Kirk is the perfect replacement for Danny Amendola, who left for Miami in the offseason. He fits the exact mold that all of the Patriot receivers have: small but efficient route runners who use their quickness to get open. This makes too much sense to pass on if Kirk is available at 31.

32. Philadelphia Eagles- Leighton Vander Esch, LB

-For the Super Bowl Champs, they need a little help in the middle of their defense, and Vander Esch from Boise is a great fit for them here. There aren't a lot of holes in this team, so I could also see a wide receiver like DJ Moore, or a running back like Derrius Guice to replace Legarrette Blount here, but Vander Esch gives them a good young talent in the middle of this talented, veteran defense.