Gubernatorial Guesswork

Happy Birthday to me! I thought I'd spend my birthday indulging in my little self-destructive habit; inaccurately prognosticating about Kansas politics. If you're a fan of my work from the primaries THANK YOU FOR COMING BACK. I had an abysmal primary season. All the polling, all the experts, and even some of the winning conservative candidates themselves thought the moderates were going to hold on. If you're not already a subscriber to Brad Cooper's Sunflower State Journal, I highly suggest giving this piece on the 2016 moderates a read. It's fine, I'm over it, it's done, it's in the past. I'm going to do what all well-adjusted adults do and let that frustration turn to rage and consume my soul and raise my blood pressure. Politics is a pendulum. That's all I'll say.

In any case, while my 2020 #ksleg Senate and House general election predictions are under construction, I thought I'd engage in a fun little speculative piece on who has set their sights on Cedar Crest for 2022. If there's one thing we've learned, it's that there are no shortage of ambitious GOP politicos who call Kansas home, and they'll be chomping at the bit to take back the Governor's mansion. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly seems to be keeping her head above water. Her approvals have held steady throughout the pandemic, as most Kansans seem to be ok with the measures she's taking to guide Kansas through the pandemic. To quote Leslie Knope, "If I can pull this off, they might once again tolerate/ignore me. That's pretty much the best case scenario for a politician." That seems to be Kelly's MO; don't piss off the moderates who elected her, keep her head down and keep working. She'll be tough to unseat, and nearly impossible to if Trump wins a second term. If it's President Biden, all bets are off. Let's get into it.

Actively Exploring

Attorney General Derek Schmidt

First, the most obvious. You'll probably be seeing a lot of AG Schmidt in the next two years. He's already out on the Kansas senate campaign trail. He's really setting himself up as the firewall to Laura Kelly's ambitions. He calls her out on nearly every move she makes, regardless if it's wrong or not. That's politics. Privately, I believe they have a cordial relationship and both absolutely have Kansas' best interest in mind. They just have different opinions on how to achieve them. Publicly, he's the top GOP official in state government and has to be on her case. His qualifications are impeccable; former senator and majority leader; KU Journalism grad and Georgetown Law; former staffers for Bill Graves and Nancy Kassebaum; from a rural, farm town in SEK so he can win over the rural block. He's a very solid establishment pick with lots of name ID, has been victorious on the statewide ballot three times, has a clean record, and above all, is a nice and likeable guy. No matter where he lands, Schmidt is a good representative of Kansas.

Former Governor Jeff Colyer

With the role of Kansas kingmaker vacant, former Governor Jeff Colyer stepped in to fill the void. He's found ways to remain relevant, such as fundraising for the party, as well as being instrumental in Jake LaTurner's primary victory over Steve Watkins in August. Now, I'm hearing rumblings that he wants to come back into the arena in a more public role. He definitely has some unfinished business. After taking over for Brownback, then going down in the primary to He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, Colyer definitely got a bit of a raw deal as far as length of term is concerned. Geographically, he'd have a bit of a problem winning over the rural areas. Being from Johnson County, there's always going to be a little bit of anti-JoCo animosity among rural Republicans. Also, the biggest weight in Kansas politics is hanging around his neck; how do you shed the "Brownbacker" label? There'd be no getting around it for Colyer. Schmidt could as least claim to be a separate entity, but Colyer can make no such disavowal. Things would have to get a lot worse for Laura Kelly before people start pining for the Brownback days. Like, a lot worse. Like, biblically worse. But hey, it's 2020, so you never know. In any case, Colyer will likely give it a go, unless a couple more dominos fall and other offices in Kansas become suddenly available. But I'm going to do the KC Star a favor and write that headline: Colyer Comeback?

On The Fence

Senator Jerry Moran

*whispers* Jer-ry. *a little louder now* Jer-ry! *a little bit louder now* Jer-ry! *A LITTLE BIT LOUDER NOW* JER-RY!

The biggest question in Kansas politics right now is "What's Jerry gonna do?" Kansas' now senior senator has been at nearly every level of government; state legislature, Congress, the US Senate. He wrote the book on holding town halls, and visits every county once a year. He toes the line very well on not ticking off the ultra-cons and remaining likeable enough that people keep voting for him. Know how? Because he understands two fundamental truths that he told his interns personally when he'd come to visit us his office call room. 1) People who follow politics every day care how you vote. People who don't follow it every day care what you say. The second group are the vast majority. 2) There are a million worse things that could happen to you than losing an election.

Listen, I'm not going to spend any more time gushing about how much I like Jerry Moran (it's a lot, maybe more than any other current elected official). Let's just say I'm not alone. He may have lost quite a few Republicans in the JoCo bubble over the Betsy DeVos vote, but he's almost universally adored by Republicans outside of it, and I'd be willing to bet he has strong approval ratings among independents as well, particularly if Trump loses. Look no further than a Democrat friend of mine who said "If Jerry runs, that's just about worse case scenario."

What's likely holding him back is the promise of a chairmanship in the US Senate, and the rather cushy hours. He's usually back in Manhattan by Thursday night to spend time with Robba and his adorable new grandbaby, Laine, before heading out to another town hall. Jerry's decision likely goes the way the US Senate goes (see the sidebar below). There's not much opportunity to push your agenda through in the minority. Just ask Kansas Democrats. HEYO!

Jerry is a guy very much focused on policy, and I trust the guy to make sound financial decisions and above all, to surround himself with good people. His Washington staff proved that to me. They are some of the best public servants to come out of Kansas. But I digress, if the Republicans lose the majority in the US Senate, I think that just might nudge Moran in the direction of Cedar Crest. Universal name ID, the ability to raise millions, and a pretty popular following would make him the instant frontrunner. Basically, if he runs, it's going to clear the field and look for Schmidt and maybe Colyer to make a go of it for his Senate seat. We've had an exciting few years in Kansas politics, but things should even out after 2022. Redistricting will be over, KC will keep getting bigger and more powerful politically, and Republicans will have to make adjustments, but the congressional delegation will be relatively young and things should be stable. Famous last words.

Sidebar: The US Senate is currently 53-47. Dems need to net four seats to win the majority outright, and will likely need some cushion if they want to do some of their policy proposals like kill the filibuster and pass Medicare for All and the GND. So, if the GOP takes back Alabama, that makes it five. Colorado and Arizona are basically already lost for Rs. Three more. The next three most likely to flip are North Carolina, Iowa, and Maine, followed by Georgia, Montana, and Alaska (sorry Barbara Bollier stans). Needless to say, Dems stand a pretty darn good chance of taking back the Senate, and that would make Jerry's decision that much easier.

Dark Horses

Now this is the fun part. Just wildly speculating and attempting to squeeze some logic out of those speculations.

Susan Wagle

Oh yes. I doubt that she's done with politics, folks. She's only 66 years old, and by far the most prominent woman in Kansas Republican politics. It would be somewhat of a longshot bid given her history on Medicaid expansion and lackluster fundraising, but don't count her out just yet.

Wink Hartman

The scuttlebutt around Wichita is that Wink got the taste for the limelight in 2018 and he's looking for a way to get back in the game. If the anti-establishment trend in American politics continues, he's not a bad bet to run. Hard to see a path to victory, as most people don't remember who he is. But money talks, and he could pull a Hamilton and just run crazy ads the whole time.

Matt Schlapp

Another Wichita area guy, Schlapp runs the American Conservative Union and is tied to Trump at the hilt. A potential candidacy by Schlapp would likely be a protest campaign against someone who he deems insufficiently conservative (read; nationalist). He'd definitely be able to raise decent money from outside of Kansas, and Wichita is where a huge chunk of Kansas money comes from. We might have found our new Kobach, folks, even if it's in name only. Plus, the dude is only 52. We're not done seeing his name bandied about.

Speaker Ron Ryckman

Another one of Laura Kelly's chess opponents in the Legislature, Ryckman is most certainly ambitious. He's gearing up to buck tradition and pursue a third term as House Speaker. Having overseen the latest purge of moderates from his caucus, there are more than a few new freshmen legislators that owe their seats to him. He'll likely face a nominal challenge from the far right, but hopefully with a future in politics on the line, he'll cave to pressure on some big policy challenges, namely Medicaid. We shall see. Probably a slim chance he goes for Governor, as I seem him more likely to pursue the 3rd District congressional seat. We shall see.

Kris Kobach

He's basically gonna turn into the Joker and do things just to watch the world burn. He can't give it up.

Wish List

Ajit Pai

Let's break some stereotypes and broaden the base here, KS GOP. The FEC Chairman hails from Parsons in SEK. He's a first generation American with lots of tech experience and business bonafides. He's smart and quippy, as his Twitter proved during the Net Neutrality "controversy" (lol remember Net Neutrality)? Overall, I just want him back in Kansas and running for something. A better bet would be the Third District, but it depends what it looks like after redistricting. My sleeper race for 2022 in the new 3rd District? Pai vs. Woodard. You heard it here first.

Lynn Jenkins

Sigh, what could have been. Lynn is smart as a whip, a good budgetary mind, and just an overall fun person to be around. I often think that she'd be sitting in the Gov's mansion if she'd chosen to run in '18 instead of walking away. Anyway, it's not gonna happen, but a guy can dream.

Think I missed anyone? Let me know @KrotzOfKansas on Twitter!